Fed's Barkin Says Hard To Know Whether Policy Is Restrictive Given The Standard Errors Around Any Model; Torn Between Focusing On The Fact That Inflation Has Been Above Target For More Than 5 Years Or Focusing On The Fact That It Jumped In Two Separate Episodes And Is Now Slowing; Do Not Think The Labor Market Is As Strong As Data Indicate, Consider It Vulnerable
https://www.richmondfed.org/press_room/speeches/thomas_i_barkin/2026/barkin_speech_20260813
A Federal Reserve leader says it's hard to know if interest rates are helping or hurting the economy right now, and he's worried the job market might not be as healthy as the numbers look. This tells investors the Fed is uncertain and cautious, which could affect how they think about economic strength.
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